Is There A Food Crisis In The Making?

Hunger will be defined differently, we will no longer see the dying malnourished sad faces of starving kids, but one of food in stores with people with no money to purchase the food, riots as people force the government to bring prices down, long queues for food, insecurity and worse still total anarchy as the countries spiral out of control

Admittedly I have being engrossed elsewhere, the recent cabinet fiasco, the Elitist Obama and the Safaricom IPO, that something else is happening, Kenya is tip toeing at the brink of a food disaster.

Prices of food have steadily been rising across the globe, with the price of Thai rice, used as a benchmark for the price of rice having shot up to around 75 percent, and with the same token the price of wheat has climbed by 120 percent over the past year, more than doubling the price of bread in most countries.

In Kenya the price of the same commodities has gone up about 20 to 30 percent, but has been masked by the current political instability, We shall see a lot of this if some measures are not put into place immediately to curb the price increases we are witnessing in the Kenya. The prices increases are not only being seen in Kenya, across Asia, governments are putting in place measures to counter the increases.

The Philippines the world's top importer of rice has decided to accelerate its imports, to shore up its domestic strategic stockpiles. Indonesia on the other hand, has sent new export rules to stop the export of rice, to stabilize the local prices. Egypt, India and Vietnam that have all moved to restrict or control exports so as to curb the price increases of various commodities.

With the recent turmoil, the displacement of people from the rift valley, there is a real fear, locally of cost of food increasing. This should not be factored with the inflationary pressure that was a result of the last few months of political upheavals, but a direct result of the cost of farming and resultant increase in the price of grains.

There are several factors that could be directly related to this, the climbing costs of fuel and other related transportation costs have increased the cost of getting the food to the market and farmers are eventually passing that extra cost to the consumers. These additional costs have not been factored into the prices as much, but as the farmers’ bottom lines continue to dwindle, they will eventually pass these costs to the consumers.

There is the effect of climate change, as we also see major grain producers and exports such as Australia are currently undergoing a severe drought. China is feeling the pressure of feeding its expanding population, while the once fertile North China Plain is quietly drying up. Although the total output of most grains has improved, the demand currently outstrips the supply and this is also pushing the prices even higher.

In India inflation has jumped, causing the main opposition party to have demonstrations that disrupted the ongoing in the lower house of the parliament, further heightening the political tensions.

Kenya having embraced globalization will feel the effect rather strongly, because currently in the international grain trade, we have seen an influx of speculative professional investment’s as people move from stocks and bonds, into the commodity market seeking better returns. This can also be seen happening in a smaller scale but is still happening as Kenya embraces the coffee and tea auction stand that fosters the speculation. What will they be selling next wheat, maize or even potatoes?

The disruption in the country over the last few months could also be blamed, with the planting season having been cut short in the “Kenya bread basket” region, the government should come up with other methods that could be used to curb this eminent increase being experienced elsewhere.

Why should we care? Other than the human, moral aspect of poor people not being able to afford to by food, we should be aware of the possible raising political and social unrest that can be caused directly as the inflation rate spins out of control, we have seen countries such as Haiti where the prime minister was ousted after a week of riots induced by food rationing, protests in Niger, Cameron and Burkina Faso.

What can Kenya do to redeem it self in the face of such a global melt down? Well the basic infrastructure is already in place to meet the demands of the grains such as maize and wheat which are part of the Kenyan stable diet. We need a clarion call from the leadership, to activate the government machinery and the government could also step up the importation of the grains from other African countries, and stop restricting the flow of this into the country to bring the price of commodities down.

The country fathers should also consider reducing import duty on all imports of the grains, and restrict the export of the grain. This is in turn would lower the cost of the produce. The farmers who are currently producing the said crops should also be cushioned from the possible drop of prices due to the imports, by government parastatals like the cereal board. With the world prices being where they are, we might see the food processors and bulk grain buyers opting for the local cheaper grain.

The common fix that was adopted by the Moi government back in the Mid 80s when Kenya grappled with a drought that shot the prices of grain up, was to set price controls. This had a counter effect; the country was left with shortages as many took to the black market to get the commodities at often higher prices. With the price controls came other problems such as queuing for the commodities, the yellow maize meal that we were feed, but this comes with a twist there is no more maize for USAID to transport because farmers are opting to sell it to ethanol fuel producing plants that have popped up all over the US mid-west.

The Kibaki government did not fare any better when the country was hit with drought and food shortages affected 3 million people In 2004-2005, they were caught flat-footed as our fellow countrymen died in Eastern, North Eastern and North Rift valley. With no capacity for grain storage as displayed at the time of the crisis, the Kibaki government will not be able to cater for the possible crisis that is brewing.

Lets not wait, Someone resolve this issue and deal with it before the bullet leaves the gun.